The Win% metric describes the probability that a horse has of winning a particular race. It is designed to be an all encompassing metric that changes depending on a wide variety of factors including which race the horse is entered into, which other horses have gotten scratched, any surface changes, and jockey changes. To make crafting tickets easier, these numbers can also be added together when using multiple horses.
This is in stark contrast with other products' rating numbers. Experienced handicappers are often confused on how to use this number because they're so used to existing ratings. Let's run through an example with two races.
In race 1, we have Decelerate with 50%, Gun Walker with 25%, and Egyptian Pharaoh with 25%.
In race 2, we have Mucho Macho Woman with 50%, Ghostsaver with 10%, Pleasantly Imperfect with 10%, Tizthen with 10%, Cat Detective with 10%, and Skip Back with 10%.
Chance to win
The main benefit of the EE Win% metric is that all the work is done for you to give you one number that describes how likely a horse is to win, regardless of who else is in the race. A 50% horse has a 50% chance of winning regardless if she's running against a 25% horse or a 10% horse. We have done the math to show that this number is accurate. If we grab a hundred 50% horses from a hundred different races, about 50 of them will win.
Handicappers familiar with other products' ratings will often ask something like "How much more likely is Decelerate to win than Mucho Macho Woman?" This question makes sense for other ratings because most of those ratings have no meaning by themselves. They're only meaningful when you compare two horses, and only if you have a chart that shows you how like a 98 horse is to beat a 89 horse. We have done all that work for you can simplified it down to one number that has a meaning. The answer is Decelerate is just as likely to win as Mucho Macho Woman because they both have 50%, even though they are facing very different competition.
Chances add together
The other benefit of the EE Win% metric is that they add together. If you play two horses on an exotic, you can simply add their numbers together. If you play 5 horses that each have 10% chance to win, together, they're just as likely to win as a 50% horse. If race 2 happened 100 times, Mucho Macho Woman would win 50 times, and one of the other 5 would win the other 50 times.
Experienced handicappers may also be confused and ask something like "None of the other horses in race 2 have a decent chance of winning! How can Mucho Macho Woman be just as likely to win as Decelerate?" This question makes a lot of sense for someone who is used to ratings. What does it mean when you combine two horses with 89 ratings? It was difficult enough to compare two horses against each other, but 89+89 may give an impossibly high number of 178. In race 2, even though the 5 worse horses have little chance to win individually, when combined, they have 50% chance to win, just as much as Mucho Macho Woman.